Methodology verified 22 June 2026DfE SEMSPSDS Phase 4Ofgem Q3 2026 cap (gas 7.33p / elec 26.11p)
compare / heat pump vs gas

Heat pump vs gas boiler school payback

Author: Oliver Wakefield-Smith, Founder Digital Signet. Reviewed against DfE Sustainability Strategy (Mar 2025) and Education Estates Strategy (Feb 2026). Verified 22 June 2026.

At gas 7.33p/kWh and elec 26.11p/kWh, an ASHP at SCOP 2.9 has a per-kWh-heat tariff near 9.0p (electricity divided by SCOP), versus a gas boiler at 88 per cent efficiency near 8.3p. The running-cost gap is narrow at current caps.

At Ofgem Q3 2026 caps

At gas 7.33p/kWh and elec 26.11p/kWh, an ASHP at SCOP 2.9 has a per-kWh-heat tariff near 9.0p (electricity divided by SCOP), versus a gas boiler at 88 per cent efficiency near 8.3p. The running-cost gap is narrow at current caps.

Spark Spread trajectory to 2030

Government policy and grid decarbonisation are projected to compress electricity costs relative to gas through 2030. By 2028 most BEIS projections cross ASHP below gas at SCOP 3.0; the trajectory underpins PSDS scoring.

CAPEX premium

ASHP CAPEX commonly sits 3 to 5 times a like-for-like gas boiler swap, before grant offset. PSDS Phase 4 offset shifts the comparison toward heat-pump favourability.

Payback gateway interaction

Salix's payback gateway accepts ASHP scopes that meet the published threshold with reasonable energy and carbon assumptions. The 15-year horizon is what PSDS scoring uses.

Related
Sources cited on this page
  1. [S3]Ofgem default price cap Q3 2026
  2. [S2]Salix PSDS
Prepared by schoolnetzero.co.uk, 22 June 2026.Page: compares-heat-pump-vs-gas-boiler-paybackAuthor: Oliver Wakefield-Smith, Founder Digital Signet.